Analysis
Analysis & news
Model deep-dives, World Cup 2026 predictions, methodology and news.
World Cup 20262026-05-25· 6 min read
World Cup 2026: the 6 title favorites according to the model
Argentina, France and Brazil top the list. Analysis of calibrated champion probabilities for the 48 teams in the tournament.
Methodology2026-05-20· 7 min read
Calibration: why a 65% model prediction must win 65% of the time
The difference between 'predicting well' and 'being calibrated'. Practical explanation of the concept that separates serious models from guessing.